The scenarios I prep for [part 1]

New York city has a population of more than 8 million people as of the 2009 census. 3.9 million of these are male, 4.4 million are female. The median age of these people are 35.9 years. Among these, 42,480 are in nursing homes, 15,338 are in local jails and 4,801 are in halfway houses for drug/alcohol abuse. The local population is diverse-with various races and nationalities, religious beliefs, affiliations and morals. All these people rely heavily on the one city's infrastructure- a high maintenance network of just in time systems. Mass transit of subways bring people in and out of an island city. Bridges and tunnels surround Manhattan, control and security provided by surveillance and roving security personnel. Food is shipped in by the truckload on a daily basis-loaded into groceries and restaurants all over-which feed the masses of people coming to the city to work. The convenience of living in such a city often hide the dangers and pending disasters associated with such a high density area working on a very interdependent and fragile system.

I have always been concerned about survivability in my area. Such a dense city with so many dependent people would be a disaster. And with the recent events happening all over, I cannot avoid thinking about my plans and preparations. There have been floods, droughts, earthquakes, financial crisis, inflation...I spend my hours pondering what this radically different time holds for the rest of us. I cannot focus on my work sometimes. I spend my hours-those that I have for myself when I am free of the chains of this daily work cycle-preparing for what may come. Almost daily I read up on specific news from certain news sources; some mainstream and some less reliable ones. I note down observations for the day when I had just scouted the neighborhood on the way home-regarding specific information which would be of value for when all my planning must be put to action. I note down tools which need to be acquired-manual hand tools and some powered ones. I prepare meat to preserve and store, constantly figuring out how long our stock will last us. I research and print instructions on how to install electricity. I check on the progress of our potato plant, and prepare for addition of other ones. I do a quick run on our group's plans for escaping the city. It sounds hectic, and it is. Sometimes it overwhelms me, especially so when I feel its urgency. These last few months have been going too fast, and I can only hope and pray that I have done all I can to avert disaster.

One of the must urgent issues I have would be an economic collapse. US now regularly uses the word "default", where it had blocked out the use of the word "recession". It may not be a full shtf scenario, not a wrol life, but it will get really ugly. Since this would be a long boring post if I wrote down all the scenarios I prep for, I'd rather break them down into smaller posts. And as I said, the most immediate one is economic collapse.

Economic collapse:

This is not a local issue-if the country's financial system fails it fails everywhere. The problems will be global-since everything is pegged on our currency. A collapse will have very specific effects in this urban environment. In a city of apartment renters-homelessness would go through the roof. Think about it, how can rent be paid if one barely has any money for food? Do you think that the land owners will just let people squat on their property for nothing? People would be homeless, entire families out on the street. If we end up there as well, I'd try to treat it as a camping trip in an urban area.

What kind of jobs would be available? I am trying to make plans and train myself in jobs that would still be around in such an event. Repairmen, engineers, construction workers, mechanics and general laborers may fare better than office workers. I wonder if a job in IT would fare well...technology would definitely be around but on what level? Also, how would schooling work? Education would be substandard as we lose good teachers. A lot of schools have closed in the past few years as well...this is a real consideration. I have thought of stocking books and educational tools, pencils and paper for this purpose. It may not be high up on my list as it is still early for my family, but it is on the to-do-list. Also, public utilities would go down, or would be of substandard quality. The quality of water in countries which faced an economic meltdown dropped significantly. Electricity was also scarce and thus there were roving blackouts. With these came disease and crime.Make plans for purifying water at home (not necessarily from a river out in the woods) and make plans for security at night, when there are no lights and perhaps no police to come to help.

I have stored food and water for my small family to feed us when food prices skyrocket. Our main plan is to bug in when the collapse begins. We'll avoid the riots and the crime by staying in a secure and familiar area. Our apartment can be made secure-the front door is steel and we have a steel table which would barricade it perfectly. Our window has access to an emergency fire escape which I will secure so only the occupants can use it-not thieves or looters. If the electricity goes out, we have lights and and a source of heat. We can cook without the gas from the utility line-and can convert to propane for some time. We've also stocked up on rechargeable batteries and disposable ones-of standard sizes so we can use use them on most of our electronics. In the future I plan to acquire a solar charger to supplement our electrical needs. Not a priority since my wife and I have experience living with roving blackouts when we were younger. As for money, we do not have a lot of money in the banks-and these would serve us little even if we got them out. It would be a good thing to have an emergency fund, in cash, at home or at some safe place for your use.

As part of what I have scouted before, I know which apartment buildings have a chimney, which ones have a source of water or a garden. We know where to find payphones hidden in a quiet corner. We know where to find meat or food besides the grocery. I know these can be useful to me later, and so I have those listed down as part of our plans. Scouting for such useful information is a good exercise I believe, and best done while things are normal and peaceful.

In reality, the biggest issue will be homelessness and food. It will be harder for those who have families, as their needs will be different with the innocent children. My preps do not cover all my concerns on this matter, and I am still working on them. Like I said, better to do them amidst these normal and peaceful times.